Thu, Feb 20, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 117 | 17 | 11 | 432 |
| WSH | 19 | 112 | 111 | 00 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:43MTLShea WeberAssists: Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 17:03WSHLars EllerAssists: Carl Hagelin, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 18:37MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 0:30MTLBen ChiarotAssists: Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:39WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 0:58MTLBen ChiarotGWGAssists: Max Domi, Jeff Petry · Slap, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 8:47MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:37WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Weal – Cousins10:07
xG 0.77–0.09 (89%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault13:46
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki10:09
xG 0.08–0.31 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Kovalchuk – Byron – Domi11:15
xG 0.30–0.57 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak15:03
xG 0.97–0.48 (67%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Kulak – Folin4:10
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot13:11
xG 0.55–0.29 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana11:59
xG 0.67–0.46 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik10:41
xG 0.41–0.53 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Dowd – Boyd – Hathaway7:26
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:02
xG 0.41–0.83 (33%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen12:38
xG 0.66–0.55 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Dillon – Kempny2:17
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gudas – Kempny8:49
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).