Thu, Feb 20, 2020·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 29 | 013 | 14 | 433 |
| CBJ | 28 | 110 | 010 | 03 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Nick Foligno, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 9:05CBJNick FolignoAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 9:28PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Travis Sanheim, Kevin Hayes · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 3:39CBJStefan MatteauAssists: Boone Jenner, Markus Nutivaara · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 14:26PHINicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Michael Raffl, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 15:52PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:51PHIKevin HayesGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:32PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:43CBJNick Foligno: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:13PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:13PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:13CBJNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:46PHIKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Konecny – Farabee12:14
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 1–2
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier13:46
xG 0.83–0.54 (60%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman8:10
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Laughton12:12
xG 0.17–0.63 (21%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers17:02
xG 0.97–0.19 (84%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Provorov16:53
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Hagg – Friedman15:25
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Robinson – Lilja10:52
xG 0.24–0.03 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Dubois15:03
xG 0.89–0.75 (54%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Jenner – Matteau5:03
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Stenlund – Bemstrom2:46
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov20:12
xG 1.01–0.81 (56%)attempts 21–21goals 1–2
- Harrington – Peeke14:31
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara16:53
xG 0.41–0.85 (32%)attempts 12–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).