Fri, Feb 21, 2020·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Detroit Red Wings 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 02 | 012 | 18 | 122 |
| NYI | 113 | 121 | 26 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 17:02NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 17:25DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Mike Green, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:23NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anders Lee, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 19:53NYILeo KomarovAssists: Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:41DETDylan Larkin: Elbowing2 min
- P1 14:02NYIMichael Dal Colle: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:22DETAdam Erne: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:08DETAlex Biega: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:31DETMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:56NYIAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:30DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Erne – Perlini – Ehn6:59
xG 0.29–0.28 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi8:57
xG 0.48–0.65 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Mantha – Larkin – Fabbri13:28
xG 0.30–0.68 (31%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening9:24
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Lindstrom11:45
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Green – Bowey14:11
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Biega – Nemeth14:03
xG 0.53–1.07 (33%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Nelson – Beauvillier7:27
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Dal Colle8:46
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Nelson – Kuhnhackl – Beauvillier3:01
xG 0.28–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal12:28
xG 0.88–0.75 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy11:46
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews10:05
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Greene – Pulock11:46
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).