Fri, Feb 21, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 4, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 312 | 15 | 06 | 423 |
| CGY | 36 | 05 | 010 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 2:34CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Tobias Rieder, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 2:58BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 3:23CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 6:12BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P1 12:20BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Karson Kuhlman, Anders Bjork · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 0:52BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Brandon Carlo, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:33BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:17CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:17BOSJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:55BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Bjork – Kuhlman11:28
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:19
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Wagner – Kuraly – Blidh7:37
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk11:22
xG 0.09–0.42 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy16:12
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Krug – Carlo15:54
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Krug – McAvoy2:18
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk11:30
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Lucic – Bennett – Dube7:02
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Rieder – Jankowski – Ryan5:23
xG 0.05–0.01 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube3:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Yelesin10:37
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Brodie – Kylington3:13
xG 0.10–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson19:20
xG 0.66–0.68 (49%)attempts 17–17goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).