Fri, Feb 21, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 117 | 212 | 210 | 539 |
| EDM | 210 | 18 | 08 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Ethan Bear · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 8:25MINKevin FialaAssists: Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 13:04EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 5:48MINCarson SoucyAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 8:01EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Matt Benning, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 10:55MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 10:07MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 18:22MINJared SpurgeonENAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 14:51MINCarson Soucy: Holding2 min
- P3 1:47EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:40EDMAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:11MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Rask – Hartman4:43
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk2:15
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:37
xG 0.43–0.31 (59%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Koivu – Galchenyuk – Fiala3:21
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba19:39
xG 1.13–0.55 (67%)attempts 22–21goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon16:59
xG 0.67–0.58 (53%)attempts 19–13goals 3–1
- Pateryn – Soucy9:01
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto16:55
xG 1.04–0.90 (54%)attempts 24–17goals 3–0
- Khaira – Cave – Russell5:16
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira3:03
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Benson7:25
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear18:58
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Benning – Lagesson10:51
xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Larsson – Jones16:26
xG 0.59–1.10 (35%)attempts 15–23goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).