Sat, Feb 22, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 111 | 113 | 235 |
| NJD | 17 | 113 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:55NJDJesper BrattAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 12:12NJDWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nikita Gusev · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 14:44WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 4:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nick Jensen · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 18:01NJDDamon SeversonPPGWGAssists: Nikita Gusev, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:36NJDConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:21NJDTravis Zajac: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:14WSHBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:03NJDColton White: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:45NJDJohn Hayden: Holding2 min
- P3 10:51NJDColton White: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:51WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:55NJDDakota Mermis: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:41NJDTravis Zajac: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:44WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:55WSHMichal Kempny: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Vrana8:43
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson8:59
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway7:55
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik6:54
xG 0.05–0.49 (10%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Dillon2:45
xG 0.09–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Dillon9:19
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – Siegenthaler8:56
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGusev – Zacha – Bratt9:04
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Hischier – Hughes10:49
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hayden – Rooney – Anderson8:30
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Zajac – Simmonds – Merkley7:59
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mermis13:35
xG 1.15–0.30 (79%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Carrick – White9:39
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Subban – Mueller13:31
xG 0.15–0.67 (19%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).