Sat, Feb 22, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 115 | 14 | 229 |
| PHI | 212 | 14 | 114 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Ivan Provorov, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 9:03PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 14:50PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 18:04WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 3:00WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 9:34PHITyler PitlickAssists: Robert Hagg, Justin Braun · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:25WPGNicholas Shore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:54PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:34PHIRobert Hagg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:21WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:56WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Shaw – Shore4:46
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Copp – Connor – Laine16:03
xG 0.92–0.85 (52%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- Harkins – Roslovic – Appleton8:29
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:33
xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Pionk17:16
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 23–10goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Beaulieu14:48
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey15:58
xG 0.33–1.32 (20%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Raffl – Konecny3:04
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier13:33
xG 0.92–0.69 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman6:42
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee8:49
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov17:23
xG 1.40–0.44 (76%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- Braun – Hagg14:36
xG 0.77–0.25 (76%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Sanheim – Myers16:42
xG 0.28–0.93 (23%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).