Sat, Feb 22, 2020·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 320 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 343 |
| NSH | 217 | 111 | 07 | 01 | 3 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Colin Blackwell, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 10:31NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:00CBJBoone JennerAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Stefan Matteau · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 4:50CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Jakob Lilja, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:21CBJEmil BemstromPPAssists: Markus Nutivaara, David Savard · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 18:57NSHColton SissonsAssists: Filip Forsberg · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Pierre-Luc Dubois scored
- 2. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 3. CBJ Stefan Matteau stopped
- 4. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. CBJ Emil Bemstrom stopped
- 6. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 7. CBJ Gustav Nyquist scored
- 8. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 9. CBJ Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 10. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 11. CBJ Kevin Stenlund stopped
- 12. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 13. CBJ Boone Jenner stopped
- 14. NSH Calle Jarnkrok stopped
- 15. CBJ Riley Nash stopped
- 16. NSH Rocco Grimaldi scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:45CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:08NSHViktor Arvidsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Robinson – Lilja12:32
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Jenner – Matteau12:32
xG 0.80–0.73 (52%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Stenlund – Thurkauf – Bemstrom6:08
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nyquist – Dubois14:14
xG 0.48–1.07 (31%)attempts 19–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Nutivaara16:31
xG 0.96–0.80 (54%)attempts 16–23goals 1–1
- Harrington – Peeke12:31
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov20:45
xG 0.56–0.99 (36%)attempts 23–27goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Forsberg – Sissons12:07
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Watson – Johansen – Blackwell10:09
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson12:20
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Grimaldi12:09
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis19:47
xG 1.29–0.46 (74%)attempts 26–20goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro16:48
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Weber – Tinordi12:50
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).