Sat, Feb 22, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Florida Panthers 3, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 16 | 119 | 335 |
| VGK | 116 | 217 | 26 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Pysyk, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 11:52VGKTomas NosekAssists: Ryan Reaves, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 0:42FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 12:39VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 19:08VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 0:19VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 5:11FLAAleksi SaarelaAssists: Mike Hoffman, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 18:43VGKReilly SmithENAssists: Paul Stastny, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:55FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P1 19:45VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:41VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:08FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:11FLANoel Acciari: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:11VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11VGKGage Quinney: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Quinney won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hoffman – Saarela2:06
xG 0.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Acciari11:28
xG 0.71–0.57 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hunt – Saarela2:33
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Connolly – Vatrano5:57
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad12:01
xG 1.05–0.62 (63%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Stillman8:24
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Yandle – Brown6:29
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Smith – Marchessault11:48
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Carrier – Roy4:42
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Reaves – Nosek – Quinney5:32
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Carrier – Nosek3:59
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt16:07
xG 0.98–0.54 (64%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Martinez – Whitecloud10:26
xG 0.34–0.59 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Holden – Theodore15:31
xG 0.70–0.96 (42%)attempts 19–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).