Sun, Feb 23, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 210 | 117 | 335 |
| WSH | 16 | 05 | 412 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 14:47PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 15:13PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jason Zucker, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 1:16WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 4:41WSHCarl HagelinAssists: Lars Eller, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 8:50PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 10:40WSHT.J. OshieGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 19:13WSHCarl HagelinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Backhand, 0.67 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:27WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:38WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00WSHBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WSHBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:56PITMarcus Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:16WSHGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min
- P2 9:16PITAnthony Angello: Interference2 min
- P2 16:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:57PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:57WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Rust11:09
xG 0.93–0.33 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Crosby – Zucker – Simon11:21
xG 0.83–0.82 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 1–2
- Agozzino – Lafferty – Angello5:59
xG 0.09–0.14 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Blueger – McCann – Tanev12:41
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Pettersson13:06
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Johnson – Ruhwedel3:24
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Letang13:24
xG 0.41–0.71 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik9:15
xG 0.74–0.32 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana10:44
xG 0.89–0.68 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:11
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson14:03
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon11:09
xG 1.33–0.74 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 3–1
- Dillon – Gudas3:02
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny4:24
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).