Sun, Feb 23, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 113 | 09 | 132 |
| DAL | 112 | 110 | 011 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:20DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Alexander Radulov, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 7:06CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 16:29DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:10DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:06DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:10CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P2 6:00DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:46DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:36DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 17:00CHIDuncan Keith: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Strome – Dach2:08
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Kubalik3:59
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Highmore – Nylander – Kampf8:18
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Kane – Saad – Carpenter8:25
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Maatta5:31
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Keith – Boqvist3:17
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Murphy – Carlsson13:24
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Radulov – Janmark10:16
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:22
xG 0.54–0.12 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Dickinson – Gurianov4:42
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Hintz – Gurianov2:29
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Heiskanen15:51
xG 0.93–0.33 (74%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak7:03
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Sekera – Oleksiak8:48
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).