Sun, Feb 23, 2020·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
San Jose Sharks 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 010 | 010 | 130 |
| NYI | 18 | 26 | 112 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:36SJSDylan GambrellAssists: Radim Simek, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:10NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 17:38NYIDevon ToewsAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 17:41NYIJosh BaileyENAssists: Anders Lee, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:55SJSStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:28SJSMario Ferraro: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:02SJSTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:26NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gambrell won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Noesen – True11:11
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Meier – Gambrell10:15
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Sorensen – Gregor – Kellman9:14
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Marleau – Goodrow – Labanc10:34
xG 0.28–0.77 (26%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek18:33
xG 0.86–0.48 (64%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro16:30
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Heed – Middleton12:58
xG 0.63–0.85 (43%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Nelson – Beauvillier11:58
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Kuhnhackl – Koivula7:42
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Dal Colle – Bellows10:32
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal13:22
xG 0.64–0.83 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Pulock16:08
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Greene – Mayfield2:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews13:50
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).