Sun, Feb 23, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 210 | 110 | 16 | 426 |
| MIN | 09 | 111 | 013 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03STLJordan KyrouAssists: Marco Scandella, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:43STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 1:43MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jordan Greenway, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 9:28STLOskar SundqvistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 5:04STLIvan BarbashevSHAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:33MINMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P1 18:12STLSammy Blais: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:37MINBrad Hunt: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:49STLVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:21STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Sundqvist – Kyrou9:12
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Schwartz11:01
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais7:13
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Perron – Sanford – Thomas9:47
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dunn12:41
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Scandella – Parayko15:44
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo12:26
xG 0.55–0.85 (39%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek6:33
xG 0.14–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Rask – Hartman3:10
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Galchenyuk – Fiala4:12
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Foligno – Greenway9:56
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:13
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:05
xG 0.72–0.75 (49%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Pateryn – Hunt9:16
xG 0.30–0.84 (26%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).