Sun, Feb 23, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 211 | 26 | 11 | 628 |
| ANA | 17 | 111 | 310 | 02 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49VGKPatrick BrownAssists: Gage Quinney, Ryan Reaves · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 19:58ANADevin ShoreAssists: Brendan Guhle · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:03ANANick RitchieAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 15:51VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:03VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 0:21ANANick RitchieAssists: Troy Terry, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 6:28VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 11:05VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Mark Stone, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 17:03ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Nick Ritchie, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 18:45ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Nick Ritchie · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–5
- OT 3:50VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–5
Penalties (3)
- P3 4:24ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:47VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:13VGKAlec Martinez: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Brown – Quinney8:07
xG 0.95–0.09 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Stephenson – Carrier – Nosek10:12
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Stone – Karlsson14:21
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault14:55
xG 0.63–0.97 (39%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Theodore18:33
xG 1.38–0.94 (59%)attempts 26–14goals 1–3
- Martinez – Whitecloud13:40
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt16:42
xG 0.66–0.82 (45%)attempts 10–23goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Henrique – Ritchie – Terry10:54
xG 0.68–0.64 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Jones11:42
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Shore – Rowney10:51
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Sherwood10:05
xG 0.28–1.31 (18%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm20:42
xG 1.19–0.85 (58%)attempts 23–20goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Guhle15:40
xG 0.37–0.86 (30%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Holzer – Larsson14:24
xG 0.48–1.09 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).