Sun, Feb 23, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 212 | 112 | 431 |
| LAK | 04 | 115 | 14 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:29EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Caleb Jones · Slap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 5:27EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 16:14EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Patrick Russell · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 18:39LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 0:49LAKDustin BrownAssists: Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:10EDMJosh ArchibaldENAssists: Connor McDavid, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:22EDMJosh Archibald: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:54LAKSean Walker: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:56EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:08LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:38EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto16:11
xG 1.18–0.35 (77%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Khaira – Russell – Haas8:23
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – McDavid11:50
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Benson9:26
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear23:32
xG 1.03–0.74 (58%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
- Benning – Lagesson8:00
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones18:50
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Kempe10:15
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo5:39
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lewis – Iafallo – Lizotte6:56
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Prokhorkin – Amadio3:13
xG 0.02–0.07 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort19:54
xG 0.83–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Roy – Walker2:59
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Roy16:00
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).