Mon, Feb 24, 2020·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 113 | 18 | 01 | 333 |
| CBJ | 115 | 18 | 117 | 15 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10CBJNick FolignoAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:48OTTConnor BrownAssists: Chris Tierney, Christian Jaros · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:55OTTConnor BrownPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:32CBJNick FolignoAssists: Boone Jenner, Vladislav Gavrikov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 9:16OTTColin WhiteAssists: Jayce Hawryluk, Matthew Peca · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 9:45CBJStefan MatteauAssists: Scott Harrington, Kevin Stenlund · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 4:35CBJEmil BemstromGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 9:46CBJNick Foligno: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Brown – Duclair8:01
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Duclair – White – Tkachuk2:36
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Sabourin – Paul2:23
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Peca – White – Tkachuk2:05
xG 0.00–0.03 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zaitsev22:29
xG 1.01–0.84 (54%)attempts 17–29goals 0–2
- Englund – Jaros4:28
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot24:21
xG 1.20–1.30 (48%)attempts 22–24goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Jenner – Matteau8:37
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nyquist – Jenner9:18
xG 0.47–0.09 (83%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Gerbe – Matteau – Stenlund3:26
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nyquist – Dubois9:12
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Peeke13:27
xG 1.10–0.47 (70%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Savard – Gavrikov19:05
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara20:20
xG 0.47–1.27 (27%)attempts 19–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).