Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 113 | 14 | 112 | 15 | 434 |
| MTL | 213 | 012 | 115 | 00 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59MTLPaul ByronAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 7:23MTLShea WeberAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 15:57VANBo HorvatPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 15:36VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 0:50MTLJordan WealAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 5:53VANJake VirtanenPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 1:35VANTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:51MTLShea Weber: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:51VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P3 4:20MTLChristian Folin: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette8:38
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Miller – Pettersson12:46
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Sutter – Beagle – Motte9:36
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Pearson – Horvat13:15
xG 0.60–1.41 (30%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Edler – Stecher17:53
xG 1.04–1.10 (49%)attempts 16–25goals 1–1
- Myers – Fantenberg16:06
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes18:01
xG 0.47–1.48 (24%)attempts 17–22goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Weal – Domi13:45
xG 1.29–0.13 (91%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki12:31
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault14:13
xG 0.74–0.79 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Weise – Lehkonen – Evans8:36
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak20:01
xG 1.44–0.41 (78%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Alzner – Folin13:21
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Chiarot16:13
xG 0.81–0.83 (49%)attempts 14–18goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).