Tue, Feb 25, 2020·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 113 | 17 | 11 | 428 |
| NYI | 015 | 116 | 214 | 00 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:02NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:48NYRGreg McKeggAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 17:04NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Ryan Pulock, Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 9:34NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Brendan Smith, Ryan Lindgren · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 14:23NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:42NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Devon Toews, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 0:28NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:15NYRBrendan Lemieux: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:19NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:52NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:52NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:52NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:52NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:16NYIJordan Eberle: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 12:30NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMcKegg – Lemieux – Gauthier5:22
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Chytil10:19
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Howden – Kakko6:47
xG 0.22–0.56 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin12:31
xG 0.51–1.41 (26%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – Lindgren2:05
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo13:31
xG 0.83–1.08 (44%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren14:19
xG 0.34–0.81 (29%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal15:25
xG 1.59–0.65 (71%)attempts 26–15goals 0–0
- Bailey – Pageau – Dal Colle8:42
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Komarov – Martin – Koivula4:16
xG 0.12–0.23 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier10:46
xG 0.25–0.48 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Toews7:59
xG 1.13–0.20 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Toews4:05
xG 0.40–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Mayfield2:02
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).