Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 115 | 010 | 13 | 228 |
| PHI | 18 | 210 | 19 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32PHINicolas Aube-KubelPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 6:30SJSJoel KellmanAssists: Jake Middleton, Tim Heed · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:51PHIKevin HayesAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:41PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 3:43PHIKevin HayesAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 8:18SJSNoah GregorAssists: Marcus Sorensen · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:26SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:26PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 0:00PHIDerek Grant: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:51SJSKevin Labanc: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 14:48SJSNoah Gregor: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 14:48PHIPhilippe Myers: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Suomela – Kellman8:26
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Thornton – Meier – Gambrell11:56
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Sorensen – Gregor – True6:47
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Couture – Kane – Labanc11:29
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeed – Middleton12:06
xG 0.87–0.24 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro15:47
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Burns – Simek17:01
xG 0.22–0.81 (21%)attempts 10–24goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Konecny10:04
xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier12:24
xG 0.56–0.15 (78%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Grant – Pitlick7:48
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Raffl – Aube-Kubel8:21
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers13:38
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Provorov16:54
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Braun – Hagg12:08
xG 0.32–0.93 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).