Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 117 | 27 | 03 | 2 | 333 |
| WSH | 210 | 112 | 011 | 04 | 3 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 10:07WSHJakub VranaAssists: T.J. Oshie, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 13:25WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Nic Dowd, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–3
- P2 18:33WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 8:39WPGKyle ConnorUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 16:46WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 3. WSH Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
- 4. WPG Patrik Laine stopped
- 5. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 6. WPG Mark Scheifele scored
- 7. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 8. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 9. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 10. WPG Nikolaj Ehlers stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 8:03WSHRadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:37WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:37WPGAnthony Bitetto: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:13WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P3 6:16WPGDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:59WSHLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Harkins – Roslovic8:00
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Eakin – Ehlers – Roslovic5:16
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Shore – Appleton6:10
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Harkins5:48
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Beaulieu19:02
xG 0.71–0.96 (42%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Pionk19:04
xG 0.76–1.12 (40%)attempts 24–21goals 1–0
- Bitetto – Poolman8:09
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:56
xG 1.39–0.38 (79%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Panik – Dowd – Hathaway7:16
xG 0.71–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Eller10:33
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana12:27
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon17:38
xG 1.36–0.36 (79%)attempts 28–17goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen16:54
xG 1.42–0.61 (70%)attempts 17–20goals 3–1
- Gudas – Kempny12:09
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).