Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 5, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 210 | 110 | 210 | 530 |
| STL | 112 | 111 | 414 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, David Perron · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 10:55CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:09CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 1:13CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Duncan Keith, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 7:38STLRobert ThomasAssists: David Perron, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 3:47STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 4:03STLZachary SanfordAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 5:16CHIMatthew HighmoreAssists: David Kampf, Alex Nylander · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- P3 8:16CHIBrandon SaadPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.23 xG5–4
- P3 9:28STLJustin FaulkAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 13:35STLZachary SanfordPPGWGAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:11CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:25CHIMatthew Highmore: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:51STLMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:28STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:05CHISlater Koekkoek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:19STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:37CHIKirby Dach: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:09STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – DeBrincat – Dach10:06
xG 0.63–0.25 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Highmore – Nylander – Kampf7:36
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula8:26
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Kane – Saad – Carpenter11:15
xG 0.15–0.80 (16%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Boqvist5:32
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Keith – Koekkoek9:31
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek3:06
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Schwartz12:05
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Perron – Sanford – Thomas11:48
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Steen – Sundqvist – Barbashev3:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Sundqvist – Kyrou5:35
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko14:53
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo11:02
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
- Pietrangelo – Faulk3:26
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).