Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 217 | 09 | 09 | 235 |
| NSH | 19 | 217 | 07 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Scott Sabourin, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:36NSHColin BlackwellAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P1 18:34OTTFilip ChlapikAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Jayce Hawryluk · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 5:17NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 9:43NSHViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:51OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:21OTTChris Tierney: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19OTTChristian Jaros: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43NSHJarred Tinordi: Interference2 min
- P3 3:22NSHRoman Josi: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Brown – Tkachuk12:49
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Boedker – Sabourin – Chlapik7:02
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Anisimov – Paul8:56
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Peca – Hawryluk – Balcers6:25
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Chabot2:42
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:22
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot19:02
xG 0.89–0.88 (50%)attempts 26–22goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Blackwell – Sissons10:07
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi5:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson11:05
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Granlund – Forsberg4:46
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Tinordi17:14
xG 0.94–0.69 (58%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis14:33
xG 0.34–0.73 (32%)attempts 14–23goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Fabbro9:55
xG 0.19–0.79 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).