Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 09 | 312 | 428 |
| MIN | 217 | 215 | 18 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34MINEric StaalAssists: Kevin Fiala · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:33CBJNick FolignoAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Scott Harrington · Snap, 0.31 xG1–1
- P1 19:13MINRyan DonatoAssists: Ryan Suter, Greg Pateryn · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 12:08MINMikko KoivuAssists: Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 19:49MINMikko KoivuAssists: Ryan Donato, Ryan Hartman · Slap, 0.43 xG1–4
- P3 1:55CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 3:16CBJPierre-Luc DuboisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 9:57MINKevin FialaGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 16:54CBJZach WerenskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:11MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min
- P2 3:40CBJScott Harrington: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:01MINMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Matteau – Dubois5:49
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Nyquist – Jenner7:05
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Shore – Bemstrom – Robinson4:51
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Stenlund – Thurkauf – Lilja5:02
xG 0.02–0.28 (8%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Nutivaara12:43
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Savard – Werenski7:04
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Nutivaara – Peeke4:36
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Greenway – Eriksson Ek13:02
xG 1.48–0.20 (88%)attempts 23–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato9:28
xG 1.17–0.22 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 3–1
- Staal – Fiala – Mayhew11:55
xG 0.82–0.92 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk11:32
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:30
xG 2.78–0.70 (80%)attempts 37–12goals 2–2
- Hunt – Dumba2:21
xG 0.09–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba18:20
xG 0.73–0.82 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).