Tue, Feb 25, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 110 | 213 | 03 | 332 |
| ANA | 210 | 05 | 14 | 12 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46ANASonny MilanoUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 13:12ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: Jacob Larsson, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:09EDMTyler EnnisAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 4:23EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 12:33ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Danton Heinen, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 15:25EDMAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Tyler Ennis, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 2:05ANASonny MilanoPPGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:56ANAAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:52EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:23ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:30ANADanton Heinen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:02EDMCaleb Jones: Holding2 min
- OT 1:09EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – Athanasiou – McDavid13:00
xG 1.36–0.47 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Archibald – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl9:45
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira4:16
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Khaira – Russell – Haas4:03
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones17:39
xG 0.95–0.82 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Green – Lagesson11:08
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Nurse – Bear18:21
xG 0.97–0.92 (51%)attempts 18–19goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Milano9:35
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Milano – Steel2:01
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Agozzino – Rowney8:21
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Jones2:23
xG 0.02–0.03 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Larsson9:14
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Irwin – Larsson6:09
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Djoos4:23
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).