Wed, Feb 26, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Edmonton Oilers 0, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 05 | 012 | 029 |
| VGK | 19 | 016 | 28 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:04VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 5:44VGKNick CousinsPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Nate Schmidt · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 9:59VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Alec Martinez, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:15VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:52EDMAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:57VGKPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:03EDMPatrick Russell: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00VGKWilliam Carrier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:02EDMEthan Bear: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – McDavid – Russell3:10
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl11:03
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Ennis – Athanasiou – McDavid7:51
xG 0.28–0.29 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Granlund – Russell – Haas4:49
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Jones4:29
xG 0.65–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Green – Nurse3:11
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Green – Lagesson8:24
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Cousins – Carrier5:39
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Karlsson10:39
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Nosek – Roy7:52
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault8:59
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Whitecloud8:03
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Theodore2:54
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt13:31
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).