Thu, Feb 27, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 7, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 310 | 310 | 16 | 726 |
| DET | 09 | 110 | 07 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Donato · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:19MINRyan DonatoGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 10:12MINMathew DumbaAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 7:33DETAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 10:30MINMathew DumbaAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 12:05MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.12 xG5–1
- P2 18:16MINKevin FialaAssists: Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.08 xG6–1
- P3 9:11MINEric StaalSHAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.14 xG7–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:10MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:23DETBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:22DETDennis Cholowski: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:06MINKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:00DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:05MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13DETLuke Glendening: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fiala – Mayhew8:05
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato9:13
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
- Parise – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:47
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk10:43
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:26
xG 0.70–0.40 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Hunt12:44
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon14:51
xG 0.05–0.51 (10%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:10
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Erne2:44
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Perlini – Ehn2:51
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Helm – Gagner8:48
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Nemeth15:04
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 21–3goals 1–1
- Bowey – Hronek12:50
xG 0.58–0.89 (40%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Cholowski11:51
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).