Thu, Feb 27, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 01 | 03 | 01 | 217 |
| STL | 19 | 010 | 111 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 16:34NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 19:05STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 18:16STLVince DunnUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 3:23STLColton ParaykoGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:30STLJaden Schwartz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:49NYIBrock Nelson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:30STLVince Dunn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Nelson – Beauvillier13:36
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Bailey – Pageau – Dal Colle13:04
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal14:38
xG 0.58–0.67 (47%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Komarov – Johnston – Koivula4:14
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Dobson3:52
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Toews5:11
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Pulock – Dobson2:58
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Schwartz15:03
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Steen – Bozak – Kyrou7:02
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Perron – Sanford – Thomas13:05
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Sundqvist – Barbashev2:47
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko13:55
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo12:56
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn2:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).