Thu, Feb 27, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 0, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 013 | 014 | 034 |
| WPG | 19 | 011 | 212 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33WPGDmitry KulikovGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 7:20WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 18:32WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Kyle Connor, Jack Roslovic · Backhand, 0.63 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:39WSHBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:44WSHRadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:37WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:07WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:10WPGAnthony Bitetto: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:12WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Dowd – Hathaway5:48
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana10:07
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Eller – Panik2:16
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:55
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Dillon15:34
xG 0.97–0.67 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Orlov – Jensen13:50
xG 0.27–0.37 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Gudas – Kempny10:45
xG 0.57–0.94 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Ehlers – Appleton7:02
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:00
xG 0.92–0.70 (57%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Copp – Harkins – Roslovic11:10
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Bourque – Shore – Appleton3:22
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Poolman11:00
xG 0.92–0.26 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu16:18
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Pionk14:05
xG 0.76–0.96 (44%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).