Fri, Feb 28, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 010 | 110 | 228 |
| PHI | 116 | 213 | 211 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49NYRJesper FastAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 16:07PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:00PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:05PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 2:36PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 12:56PHIKevin HayesAssists: Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 19:34NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Adam Fox, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P2 6:24PHIPhilippe Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min
- P2 11:15PHIIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
- P2 11:15NYRBrett Howden: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:04PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:39NYRPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:23NYRAdam Fox: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:51PHIJakub Voracek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:45NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:45PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin8:47
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Chytil – Kakko2:17
xG 0.01–0.05 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Gauthier – Howden3:43
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Chytil – Kakko6:48
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:58
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Staal – Trouba2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Trouba12:27
xG 0.45–0.91 (33%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Konecny9:26
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier11:13
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Grant – Pitlick10:12
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Thompson – Raffl – Aube-Kubel8:12
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Hagg12:28
xG 1.38–0.31 (81%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers17:46
xG 1.01–0.64 (61%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Provorov14:58
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).