Fri, Feb 28, 2020·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 29 | 29 | 18 | 526 |
| CBJ | 011 | 06 | 07 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:46MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 10:52MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 12:30MINZach PariseAssists: Jordan Greenway, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
- P3 12:20MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Zach Parise, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:30MINAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:40CBJScott Harrington: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:56MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:07CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:18CBJAndrew Peeke: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Hartman – Donato9:30
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Fiala – Mayhew9:43
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Parise – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:18
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Galchenyuk9:35
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:06
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Hunt13:42
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:06
xG 0.28–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Foligno – Nyquist – Wennberg2:12
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Foligno – Jenner3:29
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Nash – Shore2:29
xG 0.02–0.04 (29%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dubois – Bemstrom – Robinson3:27
xG 0.02–0.04 (28%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Harrington – Peeke11:58
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara17:22
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Savard – Gavrikov15:58
xG 0.37–1.23 (23%)attempts 10–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).