Fri, Feb 28, 2020·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 19 | 111 | 230 |
| ANA | 12 | 215 | 04 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14ANADanton HeinenAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 1:16PITJason ZuckerAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:23ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Sam Steel, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 17:20ANABrendan GuhlePPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:39PITJason ZuckerSHAssists: Jared McCann, Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 10:14PITEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:04ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:04ANARyan Getzlaf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:11PITJack Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:25ANAJacob Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25ANAMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25PITJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:49PITJustin Schultz: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:40ANAMax Jones: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:47PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:47ANAAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:01ANASonny Milano: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Rust7:11
xG 0.31–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Zucker – Sheary9:05
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Rust2:34
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – McCann – Simon5:21
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang11:58
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Pettersson11:02
xG 0.35–0.30 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Trotman – Ruhwedel7:02
xG 0.10–0.31 (23%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Agozzino – Rowney5:33
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Henrique – Heinen – Sherwood10:27
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Jones7:39
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Milano8:46
xG 0.09–0.36 (20%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Guhle10:24
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Larsson10:05
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Irwin – Djoos7:53
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).