Sat, Feb 29, 2020·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 4, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 012 | 27 | 430 |
| NYI | 08 | 04 | 013 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Brandon Carlo · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:10BOSMatt GrzelcykAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 11:06BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 16:26BOSCharlie McAvoyPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Slap, 0.12 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:31BOSNick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P1 18:57BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:20NYILeo Komarov: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:48NYICal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:32BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:02BOSNick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:47BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:47BOSJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – DeBrusk – Kuhlman8:56
xG 0.47–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:18
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 3–0
- Nordstrom – Kuraly – Lindholm7:39
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Kase8:58
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy2:41
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Lauzon9:58
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo12:13
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Nelson – Beauvillier4:25
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal10:16
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Brassard – Martin4:07
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Clutterbuck – Martin2:13
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Pulock10:47
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pulock2:46
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews8:43
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).