Sat, Feb 29, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 114 | 110 | 02 | 03 | 2 | 329 |
| FLA | 14 | 015 | 117 | 04 | 0 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07FLAMike HoffmanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 12:54CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Adam Boqvist, Dominik Kubalik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:21CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Connor Murphy, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 18:32FLAMike MathesonAssists: Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Frank Vatrano stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 3. FLA Mike Hoffman stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:26FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
- P1 13:26FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:13FLAErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:09CHIOlli Maatta: Interference2 min
- P2 10:13CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:11CHIKirby Dach: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Dach6:43
xG 0.49–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Caggiula – Dach2:40
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Strome – Nylander – Caggiula2:51
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Highmore – Kampf8:03
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Carlsson9:59
xG 0.88–0.27 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Keith – Murphy4:12
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek16:00
xG 0.69–0.87 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Haula – Acciari7:24
xG 1.13–0.22 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:25
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov2:07
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Connolly – Toninato6:01
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman10:25
xG 1.25–0.76 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Weegar – Ekblad15:25
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Matheson8:36
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).