Sat, Feb 29, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 15 | 213 | 01 | 330 |
| MTL | 116 | 212 | 010 | 11 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:46MTLMax DomiAssists: Paul Byron, Jordan Weal · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 4:03MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 7:45CARHaydn FleuryAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 1:14CARJoel EdmundsonAssists: Martin Necas, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 18:43CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Joel Edmundson, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 0:52MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:01MTLBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:14CARMartin Necas: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:59CARJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:38CARVincent Trocheck: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:38MTLBen Chiarot: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:36CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:48MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Necas – Svechnikov6:46
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Williams – Staal – Niederreiter3:46
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Williams – Staal – Foegele2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Foegele2:18
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Skjei – Fleury16:02
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk8:17
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Slavin15:22
xG 0.98–1.34 (42%)attempts 22–26goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Suzuki10:09
xG 0.86–0.22 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:01
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Weise – Hudon – Evans5:40
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Weal – Domi12:20
xG 0.58–0.71 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot16:06
xG 1.18–0.10 (92%)attempts 28–6goals 1–0
- Ouellet – Folin9:46
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Petry – Kulak17:31
xG 0.78–1.22 (39%)attempts 16–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).