Sun, Mar 1, 2020·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 214 | 118 | 07 | 339 |
| CBJ | 116 | 011 | 48 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:08VANElias PetterssonAssists: Tyler Myers, J.T. Miller · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 10:01CBJKevin StenlundAssists: Riley Nash, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–1
- P2 1:12VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Elias Pettersson, Troy Stecher · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 12:39CBJRiley NashAssists: Ryan Murray, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 15:06CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 18:23CBJEmil BemstromPPGWGAssists: David Savard, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:49CBJGustav NyquistENAssists: Nick Foligno, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:46CBJRiley Nash: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:08CBJEmil Bemstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:26CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:55VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:55CBJStefan Matteau: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:04VANBrandon Sutter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:27VANAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Miller – Pettersson12:03
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Motte7:05
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Gaudette – MacEwen5:58
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen11:22
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher16:58
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Myers – Fantenberg17:01
xG 0.93–0.55 (63%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes12:17
xG 0.23–0.64 (26%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stenlund – Robinson5:56
xG 0.53–0.05 (92%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- MacInnis – Stenlund – Robinson2:13
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Dubois – Bemstrom11:41
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nash – Stenlund2:43
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Werenski4:23
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke10:11
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov4:58
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).