Sun, Mar 1, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 4, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 29 | 27 | 01 | 417 |
| VGK | 06 | 118 | 019 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Iafallo, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:39LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 10:04LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Trevor Moore, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 13:14VGKShea TheodorePPUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 19:04LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:35VGKWilliam Carrier: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:37LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01LAKDrew Doughty: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:01VGKNate Schmidt: Interference2 min
- P2 12:29LAKMartin Frk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:54VGKAlec Martinez: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 4:07LAKKurtis MacDermid: Interference2 min
- P3 8:21LAKMartin Frk: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Lewis – Moore – Vilardi3:24
xG 0.05–0.27 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Frk – Kempe – Lizotte4:33
xG 0.09–0.39 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Prokhorkin – Amadio – Wagner3:49
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:43
xG 0.19–0.77 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Roy – Anderson11:26
xG 0.16–0.56 (23%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Doughty – Hutton16:46
xG 0.26–1.31 (17%)attempts 9–23goals 2–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek6:31
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 0–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault11:35
xG 0.62–0.09 (88%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Pirri – Cousins – Roy4:14
xG 0.50–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Karlsson – Roy2:36
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt12:51
xG 1.01–0.05 (95%)attempts 22–3goals 0–0
- Martinez – Theodore13:37
xG 0.90–0.08 (92%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Holden – Whitecloud8:22
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–4goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).