Mon, Mar 2, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 17 | 06 | 227 |
| DET | 14 | 06 | 08 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 12:50COLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Ryan Graves, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 14:31COLLogan O'ConnorGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:16DETGustav Lindstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 10:17DETTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P2 3:52COLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:38COLRyan Graves: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:11DETFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:29COLTyson Jost: Interference2 min
- P3 7:37DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P3 14:14COLVladislav Kamenev: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Landeskog
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Jost – Kaut7:04
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Namestnikov – MacKinnon10:04
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Nieto – Compher9:14
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Kamenev – O'Connor4:17
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Girard11:51
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Barberio – Zadorov13:15
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Cole12:05
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin12:47
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Filppula – Gagner – Fabbri6:13
xG 0.02–0.18 (9%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Timashov4:38
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Fabbri3:57
xG 0.02–0.31 (6%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Hronek3:36
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cholowski – Hronek5:13
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Lindstrom3:38
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).