Tue, Mar 3, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 117 | 04 | 235 |
| TBL | 09 | 15 | 07 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:05BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 10:05BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 17:28TBLMitchell StephensAssists: Tyler Johnson, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:35TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:09BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:46TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:54TBLMikhail Sergachev: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:56BOSJoakim Nordstrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:56TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Wagner – DeBrusk7:49
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – Kase10:02
xG 0.98–0.29 (77%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Nordstrom – Kuraly – Lindholm4:51
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak4:08
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Lauzon7:13
xG 1.10–0.22 (83%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Krug – Carlo7:46
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy11:40
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Killorn – Coleman – Cirelli5:27
xG 0.03–0.16 (16%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point9:03
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paquette – Stephens4:21
xG 0.05–0.38 (12%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Goodrow – Gourde6:17
xG 0.00–0.99 (0%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman2:27
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Shattenkirk7:19
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev3:05
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).