Tue, Mar 3, 2020·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Montréal Canadiens 6, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 312 | 15 | 210 | 627 |
| NYI | 07 | 07 | 28 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Ben Chiarot, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 15:43MTLJeff PetryAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 18:34MTLCharles HudonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 12:35MTLPaul ByronSHAssists: Joel Armia · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–0
- P3 6:14NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.37 xG4–1
- P3 15:28MTLJordan WealAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 16:21NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 17:10MTLJoel ArmiaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:16NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:16MTLChristian Folin: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:35MTLMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:33MTLXavier Ouellet: Holding2 min
- P3 15:44MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:55MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Danault – Lehkonen8:12
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 16–3goals 2–1
- Weal – Hudon – Domi2:37
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault2:41
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Weise – Hudon – Evans7:13
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak18:13
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Ouellet – Folin11:40
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot16:21
xG 0.62–0.89 (41%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal7:00
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson3:44
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Bailey – Pageau – Dal Colle2:37
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Beauvillier2:42
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews10:58
xG 1.02–0.23 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Greene – Leddy2:34
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pulock2:45
xG 0.24–0.22 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).