Tue, Mar 3, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 3, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 19 | 26 | 322 |
| NYR | 17 | 07 | 012 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:26NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 2:35STLColton ParaykoPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 9:56STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:54STLJaden SchwartzENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:32STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06STLJacob de la Rose: Interference2 min
- P2 1:13NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Blais9:58
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Schwartz11:50
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Steen – Bozak – de la Rose7:47
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Sanford – Thomas9:49
xG 0.04–0.60 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Dunn10:51
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Faulk19:04
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
- Scandella – Parayko16:25
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHowden – Chytil – Kakko8:14
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin8:40
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Di Giuseppe – Buchnevich8:47
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- McKegg – Lemieux – Gauthier4:53
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeAngelo6:14
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren10:32
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Trouba10:09
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).