Tue, Mar 3, 2020·United Center, Chicago
Anaheim Ducks 2, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 113 | 110 | 239 |
| CHI | 16 | 418 | 116 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Adam Boqvist, Kirby Dach · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:46CHIDylan StromeAssists: Duncan Keith, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 4:20ANADanton HeinenAssists: Christian Djoos, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 15:29CHIDylan StromeGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Lucas Carlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 18:07CHIAlex NylanderAssists: Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 18:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Alex Nylander, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 8:26ANACarter RowneyAssists: Jacob Larsson, Nicolas Deslauriers · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 15:03CHIDavid KampfAssists: Matthew Highmore · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:54CHIPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:30CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:08ANAMatt Irwin: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:43ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:46CHIDrake Caggiula: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Milano – Heinen11:30
xG 1.33–0.91 (59%)attempts 17–16goals 1–3
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell12:57
xG 0.78–0.91 (46%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
- Steel – Jones – Sherwood10:19
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Backes – Deslauriers – Rowney10:01
xG 0.25–0.95 (21%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Djoos8:28
xG 0.91–0.28 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Djoos – Guhle4:04
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Larsson9:45
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Strome – Nylander11:31
xG 1.68–0.72 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 3–1
- Carpenter – Highmore – Kampf7:58
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- DeBrincat – Caggiula – Dach11:06
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Toews – Saad – Kubalik11:15
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Boqvist16:49
xG 1.41–0.79 (64%)attempts 25–15goals 3–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek14:43
xG 0.90–0.73 (55%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Boqvist2:21
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).