Tue, Mar 3, 2020·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 2, Dallas Stars 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 110 | 08 | 13 | 227 |
| DAL | 016 | 015 | 112 | 00 | 143 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:24EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 6:42DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 1:08EDMAlex ChiassonPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:08EDMJujhar Khaira: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:21DALStephen Johns: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:44EDMKailer Yamamoto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:21EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:42DALAlexander Radulov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:52DALCorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P2 13:38DALBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:02EDMAndreas Athanasiou: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58EDMAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:07EDMAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:36DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Neal – Chiasson – Khaira6:47
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto2:17
xG 0.03–0.06 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Sheahan – Athanasiou8:04
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ennis – Archibald – McDavid7:44
xG 0.14–0.47 (22%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Benning8:43
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear17:13
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones13:02
xG 0.15–1.12 (12%)attempts 6–26goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:03
xG 0.47–0.05 (91%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Hintz – Gurianov6:33
xG 0.37–0.03 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Benn – Seguin8:43
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Radulov – Janmark5:59
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Heiskanen10:32
xG 0.83–0.15 (85%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:34
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen3:47
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).