Tue, Mar 3, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New Jersey Devils 0, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 011 | 07 | 027 |
| VGK | 011 | 19 | 212 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:45VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 0:37VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Nicolas Roy, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 8:49VGKRyan ReavesAssists: William Carrier, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:07NJDConnor Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:56VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:48VGKMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P3 13:54VGKBrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hischier – Hughes11:19
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Rooney – Anderson – McLeod9:43
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Bratt9:45
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Zajac – Wood – Boqvist11:02
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carrick – Jacobs14:12
xG 0.29–0.38 (44%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Subban – Mueller14:38
xG 0.61–0.74 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Severson – Mermis15:46
xG 0.38–1.07 (26%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Cousins – Stephenson10:47
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Karlsson – Roy11:46
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault10:22
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek10:04
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Theodore16:10
xG 1.29–0.48 (73%)attempts 26–13goals 1–0
- Holden – Whitecloud13:09
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Theodore3:00
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).