Wed, Mar 4, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 06 | 04 | 03 | 222 |
| CGY | 08 | 013 | 210 | 16 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:56CBJDevin ShoreAssists: Andrew Peeke, Scott Harrington · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:20CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Nick Foligno, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 11:14CGYElias LindholmAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 18:17CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mark Giordano, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 4:49CGYTJ BrodieGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 19:26CGYSean Monahan: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:09CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stenlund – Robinson9:21
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nyquist – Jenner14:12
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Matteau – Shore – Lilja8:34
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Dubois – Bemstrom11:53
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Gavrikov20:26
xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Murray – Werenski16:56
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Harrington – Peeke12:47
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:59
xG 0.61–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube7:01
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan2:00
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Bennett6:10
xG 0.17–0.35 (32%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hanifin – Andersson19:44
xG 0.87–0.84 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie17:40
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Forbort – Gustafsson11:19
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).