Wed, Mar 4, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 15 | 010 | 15 | 430 |
| COL | 213 | 07 | 18 | 07 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51COLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 5:34ANAAndrew AgozzinoAssists: Carter Rowney, Matt Irwin · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 13:40ANABrendan GuhleAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 14:29COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 12:48ANASam SteelAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 7:19COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 4:58ANARickard RakellGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:40ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:40COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:02ANAKiefer Sherwood: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:02ANAKiefer Sherwood: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:48COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:13COLJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min
- P3 6:41ANASonny Milano: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:38COLVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:38ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40COLMark Barberio: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Deslauriers – Agozzino – Rowney6:53
xG 0.02–0.04 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Steel – Jones – Sherwood9:10
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell10:50
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Milano – Heinen11:55
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Djoos2:19
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Irwin – Larsson2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Irwin – Djoos4:56
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Namestnikov – MacKinnon11:52
xG 0.79–0.41 (66%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Bellemare – Kamenev – O'Connor4:10
xG 0.36–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Nieto – Compher7:22
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Jost – Kaut5:35
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Cole11:15
xG 0.65–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Graves – Girard12:24
xG 0.71–0.26 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Girard4:01
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).