Thu, Mar 5, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 012 | 012 | 032 |
| TBL | 212 | 16 | 15 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:40TBLAlex KillornSHAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 18:55TBLNikita KucherovSHAssists: Patrick Maroon, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 18:57TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Yanni Gourde · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:59TBLZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P2 15:52TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLMikhail Sergachev: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00MTLShea Weber: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:59TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 17:26MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:26MTLBen Chiarot: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:44MTLChristian Folin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Danault – Lehkonen3:48
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Weal – Hudon – Domi2:31
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Byron – Weal – Domi6:32
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Armia – Hudon – Suzuki5:22
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot12:13
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Alzner – Chiarot3:10
xG 0.01–0.12 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Ouellet – Folin8:14
xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Goodrow – Stephens9:41
xG 0.85–0.07 (92%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette12:06
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Coleman – Cirelli9:13
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point10:31
xG 0.25–0.63 (29%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev13:06
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Coburn – Bogosian13:56
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman2:39
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).