Thu, Mar 5, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 5, New York Rangers 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 217 | 28 | 00 | 534 |
| NYR | 19 | 212 | 216 | 12 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:05WSHCarl HagelinAssists: Nick Jensen, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:01NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:29NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:01WSHIlya KovalchukAssists: Lars Eller, Richard Panik · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:42NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Artemi Panarin, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 14:58WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Michal Kempny, Richard Panik · Slap, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 0:12NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 9:22WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 18:18NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Brendan Lemieux · Slap, 0.36 xG4–5
- P3 19:17WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, John Carlson · Snap, 0.31 xG5–5
- OT 0:33NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Tony DeAngelo · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:43NYRPavel Buchnevich: Holding2 min
- P1 7:32WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:49WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P2 6:01WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:48NYRBrendan Lemieux: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:24WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:24NYRBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:52WSHLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:55WSHJohn Carlson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:53WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Dowd – Hathaway5:50
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Eller8:39
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana9:47
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson6:06
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kempny7:35
xG 0.89–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Orlov – Jensen11:27
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Orlov – Kempny2:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Di Giuseppe – Buchnevich6:16
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Strome – Buchnevich – Panarin2:00
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin11:02
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- McKegg – Lemieux – Gauthier3:24
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren12:17
xG 0.82–0.15 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Trouba2:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Trouba11:44
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).