Thu, Mar 5, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 07 | 115 | 129 |
| PHI | 19 | 112 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:23PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Scott Laughton, Derek Grant · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 9:34PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 2:55CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Jordan Staal, Brock McGinn · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:28PHINicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 4:54PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 2:00CARJoel Edmundson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:16CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDzingel – Martinook – Foegele4:44
xG 0.61–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho9:41
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – Dzingel8:29
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – McGinn4:22
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Slavin19:05
xG 0.91–0.69 (57%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk13:17
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Skjei – Fleury16:15
xG 0.71–1.29 (35%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Konecny – Farabee10:17
xG 0.81–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – Raffl – Aube-Kubel10:41
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Grant – Pitlick – Laughton13:15
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier13:53
xG 0.64–1.03 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov16:00
xG 1.50–0.31 (83%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Braun – Hagg16:39
xG 0.45–0.99 (31%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Myers17:41
xG 0.58–1.15 (34%)attempts 10–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).