Thu, Mar 5, 2020·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 212 | 03 | 327 |
| SJS | 114 | 08 | 120 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:34MINRyan SuterAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:40SJSStefan NoesenPPAssists: Noah Gregor, Tim Heed · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 11:30MINAlex GalchenyukAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:48MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Luke Kunin, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 9:08SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Marcus Sorensen, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:02MINBrad Hunt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:39MINGreg Pateryn: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:59MINMathew Dumba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:29SJSKevin Labanc: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Suomela
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Galchenyuk – Fiala3:13
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato9:38
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Parise – Fiala – Kunin9:03
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Mayhew9:45
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba16:57
xG 0.75–0.47 (61%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:13
xG 0.56–1.01 (36%)attempts 10–26goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Hunt10:19
xG 0.24–1.07 (18%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Labanc – Meier7:56
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Sorensen – Gambrell – Kellman6:41
xG 0.57–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Meier3:16
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Couture – Kane – Noesen3:38
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek19:33
xG 1.32–0.66 (67%)attempts 26–15goals 0–0
- Heed – Davidson8:56
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro17:08
xG 0.54–0.84 (39%)attempts 19–16goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).