Fri, Mar 6, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
St. Louis Blues 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 014 | 110 | 233 |
| NJD | 18 | 215 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:38NJDJesper BrattAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:31STLVince DunnPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 6:50NJDDakota MermisAssists: Damon Severson, Cory Schneider · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 17:58NJDConnor CarrickGWGAssists: Fredrik Claesson, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 16:49STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:03NJDJoey AndersonENAssists: Pavel Zacha, Mirco Mueller · Snap, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:37NJDKevin Rooney: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:43STLZachary Sanford: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:37NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:43STLColton Parayko: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:09NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:24NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Bozak – Thomas3:37
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Kyrou4:35
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford3:57
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Barbashev – Blais6:46
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Dunn3:08
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn8:16
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn2:30
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Wood – Hischier13:16
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Zajac – Anderson – Hughes10:28
xG 0.74–0.48 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Hayden – Rooney – McLeod8:59
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Bratt8:43
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClaesson – Carrick12:52
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Subban – Mueller14:37
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Severson – Mermis16:26
xG 0.77–0.91 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).